Possible scenario
Minesweeping Contains Crisis
42% Chance
The most likely path is a sustained but contained naval response led by the United States, United Kingdom, France, Egypt, and Gulf partners. Mine-clearing operations reduce immediate vessel losses, but commercial traffic remains cautious and insurance premiums stay elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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