Possible scenario
Sustained Oil Campaign
28% Chance
The Houthis continue targeting Saudi energy infrastructure, including Riyadh-area facilities and potentially Eastern Province nodes, while Saudi Arabia expands its campaign against Houthi oil and missile assets. This would signal that the conflict has moved from episodic retaliation into a more persistent infrastructure-focused campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.