Contained Retaliation Cycle

Saudi Arabia responds with limited airstrikes against Houthi launch sites and storage depots, while the Houthis claim another symbolic strike but avoid a large supply-disrupting attack. This is the most likely path because both sides have escalated repeatedly, but neither has yet crossed into a sustained campaign that materially removes Saudi crude from export markets.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.