Possible scenario
Quota-Constrained Demand
20% Chance
China's unchanged 2027 crude import quota caps how much incremental import demand the new refinery can create. The plant may still run Saudi crude, but other refiners could lose allocations or reduce purchases.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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