Possible scenario
Routine Supply Ramp
45% Chance
The first cargo becomes the start of a steady term-supply relationship between Saudi Aramco and the Huajin Aramco Petrochemical refinery in Liaoning. This is the base case because Aramco has long prioritized downstream access in China and the shipment follows years of Saudi-China energy coordination.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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