Possible scenario
Export Controls Return
20% Chance
Despite the denial, the administration could still reverse course if retail diesel prices keep setting records or political pressure intensifies. A formal restriction would be a clear sector-level policy shock, especially for Gulf Coast refiners with export exposure.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.