Possible scenario
Denial Holds
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the White House denial reflects the final near-term decision, with no 90-day diesel export ban announced. The administration continues to blame refinery constraints and Russia-related supply disruption rather than imposing a disruptive trade restriction.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+0.8%
- +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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