Possible scenario
Limited Facility Damage
30% Chance
The fire is tied to a strike or equipment damage at Abqaiq, but only a portion of processing capacity is affected. This creates a measurable but manageable oil-market shock, with Aramco using inventories and alternate routing to limit export disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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