Possible scenario
Major Abqaiq Disruption
18% Chance
A more severe outcome is that the fire reflects successful damage to core stabilization or processing units at Abqaiq. Given the facility's centrality to Saudi crude preparation, even a short outage above 1 million barrels per day would reprice oil and geopolitical risk quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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