Possible scenario
Wider Sharara Shutdown
20% Chance
The disruption deepens from a 130,000-bpd loss into a broader field-level shutdown, potentially approaching Sharara's full production capacity. This would still be a contained Libyan supply event, but large enough to move crude prices more visibly over one or two sessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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