Possible scenario
Valve Reopens Quickly
35% Chance
The most benign outcome is that Libya's National Oil Corporation or local intermediaries secure access to the closed valve and restore flows within days. Sharara disruptions are frequent and often resolved through local bargaining rather than prolonged national escalation.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- TTE+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.