Possible scenario
US-Backed De-escalation
25% Chance
Washington pushes Riyadh and Abu Dhabi toward a unified Houthi-response cell while discouraging an open-ended air campaign. The recent White House effort to create a unified command makes this a credible path if both Gulf governments prioritize oil-market stability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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