Possible scenario
Escalation Hits Energy
20% Chance
The Houthis interpret closer Saudi-UAE coordination as preparation for a major campaign and respond with a more aggressive strike package. This is less likely than a contained response, but recent attacks on Riyadh airport and Aramco-linked facilities make energy escalation a material risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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