State Attribution Escalates
−0.4%
Forensic work connects the fridge campaign or follow-on router probing to a state-backed actor. This is less likely than containment or regulation, but the Salt Typhoon precedent makes geopolitical attribution a plausible tail risk.
What it moves
- Telecommunications−0.7%
- Technology−0.7%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.