Possible scenario
Congressional Fight Escalates
27% Chance
Congressional committees turn the pulled posting into a confrontation over DOJ compliance, especially given prior claims that Trump-related materials were mistakenly withheld. The issue becomes a major oversight fight, but still stops short of a broader governing crisis in most cases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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