Possible scenario
U.S. Retrenchment Accelerates
20% Chance
The event becomes part of a broader Trump administration rollback of U.S.-funded democracy, media and counter-disinformation programs following the earlier closure of USAID headquarters and pressure on State Department offices. The practical effect is reduced U.S. participation in allied information-security institutions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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