Possible scenario
Parallel Allied Blocs
30% Chance
European and Canadian officials decide that U.S. pressure is not an isolated incident and begin organizing counter-disinformation work outside U.S.-chaired formats. The transatlantic alliance remains intact militarily, but information-security coordination becomes more fragmented.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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