Possible scenario
Managed Diplomatic De-escalation
35% Chance
Washington, Brussels, Ottawa and Vilnius contain the dispute through procedural changes rather than a public reversal. This is the most likely path because none of the parties benefits from turning a disinformation conference into a larger NATO rupture while Russian AI influence operations are already active.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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