Possible scenario
Saudi Military Escalation
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds with heavier strikes against Houthi launch sites, radar assets, and storage depots in Yemen. The escalation remains below full regional war, but repeated action raises the risk premium in crude and supports defense-linked equities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.