Possible scenario
Contained Missile Campaign
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued Houthi missile and drone fire against Saudi energy and transport targets without a decisive hit. Saudi Arabia absorbs the attacks with Patriot and THAAD defenses while keeping retaliation limited to avoid a broader regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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