Possible scenario
GOP Absorbs Setback
35% Chance
Republicans remain structurally advantaged in Florida despite the end of their 68-month voter registration streak. The state GOP, backed by county-level infrastructure built under Ron DeSantis and the Republican Party of Florida, treats the reversal as a warning sign rather than a regime shift.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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