Possible scenario
Talks Stall Politically
22% Chance
Congressional critics and human-rights groups challenge any exchange that appears to reward Lukashenko or other adversaries. The appointment still stands, but the White House becomes more cautious about concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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