Possible scenario
Belarus Deal Advances
38% Chance
John Coale uses his Belarus portfolio and new hostage-affairs role to consolidate talks with Alexander Lukashenko’s government. The most likely near-term outcome is a narrow humanitarian deal that trades detainee releases for calibrated sanctions relief or licensing flexibility.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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