Possible scenario
Contained Strike Cycle
40% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the current strike-for-strike pattern without a decisive Saudi ground reversal or Houthi collapse. Riyadh airport faces intermittent closures, Saudi air defenses intercept some drones and missiles, and the market prices a persistent but contained geopolitical risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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