Possible scenario
Backchannel De-Escalation
20% Chance
Repeated attacks on Riyadh raise the political cost for both sides, creating room for Omani or UN mediation. Saudi Arabia may still reject a broad truce tied to lost territory, but narrower understandings on airports and civilian sites become plausible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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