Possible scenario
Pragmatic Ankara Alignment
42% Chance
The eastern House of Representatives' approval survives initial objections and becomes a pragmatic opening to Ankara after Agila Saleh's removal. The new HoR leadership, Tripoli-based institutions, and Khalifa Haftar's camp tolerate technical cooperation because it can unlock reconstruction, security, and energy deals.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- TTE+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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