Possible scenario
Libyan Political Challenge
20% Chance
The approval becomes a tool in Libya's internal power struggle following the replacement of Agila Saleh. Rival eastern factions, the Libyan National Army, and Tripoli-based authorities bargain over whether the vote is legally valid and who controls any benefits from Turkey.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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