Possible scenario
Recovery Stays Limited
30% Chance
The 3.4% first-half increase proves to be a low-base rebound rather than the start of a strong recovery. With Europe largely closed, Ukraine transit ended, and new Chinese pipeline capacity still years away, Gazprom struggles to place additional volumes profitably.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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