Possible scenario
Asia Pivot Holds
35% Chance
Gazprom's modest output increase becomes part of a durable reorientation away from Europe and toward China, Central Asia, and domestic Russian demand. The September 2025 Russia-China pipeline plan remains the key medium-term outlet, but near-term growth still depends on Power of Siberia volumes and Russian industrial consumption.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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