Possible scenario
Opposition Adapts
18% Chance
Opposition parties and Arab civic leaders find workarounds through joint slates, tactical voting, or coordinated turnout drives. This scenario limits the mechanical advantage from disqualification and could make the former general challenging Netanyahu the chief beneficiary.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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