Possible scenario
Court Restores Ballot
35% Chance
Israel's Supreme Court or election authorities reverse most of the disqualifications after petitions by Hadash-Ta'al, Ra'am and civil-rights groups. This is plausible because Israeli courts have historically been reluctant to exclude large Arab lists absent a very high evidentiary bar, especially before a nationally decisive election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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