Possible scenario
Iran Threat Reassessed
18% Chance
The exposed tactic is folded into a broader U.S. reassessment of Iranian threats against Trump and senior U.S. officials. Because Israel warned Washington in July 2026 about an alleged Iranian assassination plot, even a procedural security lapse could produce a sharper diplomatic response if intelligence is refreshed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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