Gulf Disruption Escalates

its chance, of the story’s futures

−2.9%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The warning about shipping costs becomes the prelude to a more direct disruption of Gulf oil exports. Even a partial interruption of Hormuz or alternative infrastructure would force markets to price a crisis premium into crude, credit and volatility over the next trading sessions.

What it moves

Consumer Services−5.7%
Energy+5.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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