Possible scenario
Talks Stall Publicly
20% Chance
The envoys discover that Washington can convene talks but cannot bridge the core gap over territory, neutrality, and security guarantees. The diplomatic effort remains alive, but public disappointment increases market hedging.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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