Possible scenario
Ceasefire Framework Emerges
25% Chance
Norway becomes the venue for a more substantive U.S.-backed proposal that temporarily freezes parts of the battlefield. This would not be a final peace deal, but it would be the clearest de-escalation signal since the war began.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Technology +1.0%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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