Possible scenario
Energy Attacks Escalate
20% Chance
The denial fails to de-escalate the confrontation, and the Houthis or Saudi authorities report additional drone or missile activity against energy assets. Because recent strikes have already targeted Aramco and Saudi oil sites, this scenario carries the largest immediate market impact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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