Possible scenario
Claim Remains Contained
35% Chance
The denial is followed by no clear evidence of significant damage at the Medina power station, and both sides keep the dispute mostly rhetorical. Given prior Houthi denials and the limited market relevance of a single power-station claim, this is the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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