• 

  35%+0.1%

  Negotiated Port Carve-Outs

  Unions, port authorities, and governments negotiate a limited mechanism that allows non-lethal, humanitarian, and verified defense cargo to move while blocking disputed weapons shipments. This is the most likely path because port shutdowns impose costs quickly and governments have strong incentives to avoid a wider logistics shock.

  Industrials +0.1% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

• 

  25%−0.4%

  Government Legal Crackdown

  National governments move to reopen ports using labor courts, emergency logistics statutes, and police protection for cargo movements. This path is plausible because defense logistics are politically sensitive, but aggressive enforcement risks turning the strike into a broader labor confrontation.

  Consumer Cyclicals −0.6% · Industrials −0.5% · Finance +0.3%

• 

  20%−1.2%

  Broader Logistics Disruption

  The weapons-focused strike spills into broader port congestion as crews slow inspections and refuse cargoes with unclear end users. This is less likely than a negotiated settlement, but the large number of ports involved makes operational contagion a real risk.

  Industrials −2.7% · Consumer Cyclicals −1.0% · Non-Energy Materials −0.7%

• 

  20%−0.2%

  Policy Embargo Cascade

  Governments respond to the dockworker campaign by formalizing restrictions on arms shipments linked to Israel and other contested conflicts. This outcome is plausible given the recent Spanish halt and UN genocide findings, but it requires political coordination that may take longer than the strike itself.

  Industrials −0.4% · Finance +0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.