Possible scenario
Managed Health Concern
45% Chance
Kim Jong Un remains visibly overweight but politically functional, with no clear interruption to command structures in Pyongyang. South Korean intelligence continues to flag cardiovascular and metabolic risks, but the Workers' Party, military, and security services show no sign of open instability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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