Possible scenario
Health Disruption Escalates
15% Chance
Kim's obesity becomes a more serious governance issue if he disappears from major events or foreign intelligence agencies report treatment for heart, diabetes, or respiratory complications. North Korea's nuclear command structure would likely remain intact, but uncertainty over decision-making would rise sharply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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