Possible scenario
Intermittent Attacks
25% Chance
Iran-aligned or Houthi forces continue probing Saudi oil infrastructure with drones or missiles, but most attacks are intercepted or cause only limited disruption. This keeps a modest risk premium in crude without producing a sustained outage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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