Possible scenario
Deterrence Improves
15% Chance
Saudi Arabia, the United States, and regional partners strengthen air-defense coverage and maritime monitoring around Red Sea export routes. A diplomatic or military deterrence signal reduces the perceived probability of another successful strike.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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