Possible scenario
Truce Collapses Quickly
25% Chance
Russia or Ukraine rejects Trump's characterization, and the energy war resumes almost immediately. Given recent reciprocal attacks on Ukraine's grid and the Lukoil refinery, a fast collapse remains a high-probability tail within the next few days.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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