Possible scenario
Energy Truce Holds
35% Chance
Despite Trump's unusual phrasing, both Kyiv and Moscow quietly observe a narrow pause on attacks against power grids, refineries, and major energy infrastructure. The most likely mechanism is an informal understanding brokered through U.S., Turkish, or Gulf intermediaries rather than a signed public accord.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.8%
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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