Possible scenario
Retaliatory Sanctions Cycle
20% Chance
Japan moves beyond protest by adding targeted sanctions on Russian officials involved in the arrest or Kurils administration. Russia responds with media restrictions, travel bans, and threats against Japanese interests still operating in Russia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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