Possible scenario
Proxy Escalation Continues
25% Chance
The Houthis interpret the rapid-deployment mechanism as hostile escalation and answer with additional missile or drone launches. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan deepen operational coordination, but the fighting remains below the threshold of direct Iran-Saudi conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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