Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
20% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly to keep the pact from triggering a wider conflict. Saudi Arabia uses the deployment threat to strengthen its bargaining position while Oman, the United States and the United Nations press for limits on missile and drone attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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