Possible scenario
Export curbs intensify
20% Chance
Russia keeps distillate exports restricted longer than expected, tightening Atlantic Basin supply during the winter heating season. The U.S. Northeast faces stronger competition from Europe for replacement cargoes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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