Possible scenario
Sanctions Bargain Expands
25% Chance
The U.S. administration uses oil-market stabilization and migration diplomacy to justify broader Venezuela licenses. Additional companies are allowed to swap debt for crude, fund workovers or buy Venezuelan heavy oil under monitored arrangements.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- CVX+0.5%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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