Possible scenario
Discount Persists Longer
15% Chance
The Joliet restart coincides with adequate Midwest stocks and softer post-summer demand. Chicago gasoline remains unusually cheap, pressuring regional refining margins for longer than traders initially expected.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- PSX-0.5%
- XOM-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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